The Vice Chancellor of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, will be hoping that a trade deal between Canada and the E.U. will be pushed through in October, as his future as a politician and his ambitions to become Chancellor may hinge on it.
As part of his pledges in his role as economy minister, the VC and centre-left SPD party leader Gabriel has continuously backed the Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA), even amid sceptical criticism of the deal from within his own party claiming the trade agreement would not benefit the European Union, only help large worldwide conglomerate gain access to the financial bloc, giving nothing in return.
Should Mr. Gabriel fail to convince the majority of his fellow SPD members of the merits of the deal at next week’s party convention, it could scupper his chances of running for Chancellor in the 2017 national elections. Another blowback could be the ignition of an internal power struggle in the SPD, which is a partner in Germany’s coalition government, the conservatives led by Angela Merkel being the senior partner.
“There is every chance that Gabriel could resign as the party leader if the CETA fails to win favour next week, most people observing German politics would say that would not be a good situation,” said Stuart Poulson, Head of Corporate trading at Nikko-Desjardins Asset Management in a note to clients.
“Emotions are running particularly high with the refugee issue and Merkel needs the full support of the SPD to counterbalance the CDU party’s position,” Poulson added.
If Gabriel were to convince the delegation to back CETA it would give him a much needed boost. He is currently a distant second to Merkel in the German political approval ratings even though the current Chancellor’s ratings took a nosedive with her decision to allow an influx of refugees into the country.
Gabeiel wants CETA as a counterbalance to China’s increasing influence on the world trade stage, and he was quick to condemn a competing trade proposal, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which he said “had failed to meet the needs of the parties involved”.
CETA, conversely, would be a chance for developed nations to “make a move up the ladder of trade co-operation in the global market” if the deal is ratified by member states at the end of next month.
Gabriel made a trip to Ottowa last week in order to hammer out pre-agreement guarantees so as to appease any lingering doubters within the SPD.
